8 Signs of Hope for the Economy

by Beth Kowitt

provided byCNNMoney.com

Are we on the brink of a rebound, or is it a false spring? Fortune looks at the evidence for an imminent recovery.

Is the economy looking up, or at least bottoming out? Lately there has been much talk about "glimmers of hope," in President Obama's words, and "green shoots," a phrase du jour used by the likes of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Meanwhile, many economists have warned about a false spring, pointing to numbers that are still getting worse, like the unemployment rate. Fortune takes a closer look at the upbeat news to assess whether how strong a case they make for an imminent recovery.

1. Housing Starts

The government reported that the overall number of housing starts fell in March, but those for single-family homes during the month came in unchanged from the February figure of 358,000.

IHS Global Insight noted that this suggests single-family home construction may be stabilizing and is "testing the bottom."

2. The Stock Market

The S&P 500 was up 9.4% in April, its biggest monthly rally since March 2000. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index ended the month at 8,962.96, up 849.85, or 10.48%. This is the best monthly return since December 1991, when the index was up 10.72%.

"The initiatives of the federal government and some of the improvements in the credit markets are making investors more confident," said Thomas Cowhey, chief investment strategist at Hirtle Callaghan.

3. Consumer Confidence

Preliminary figures for the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index showed a jump of more than 12 points during April, to 39.2. The reading, which measures consumer views on the economy, beat analyst expectations and was the highest so far in 2009.

Lynn Franco, director of the organization's research center, attributed the rise in confidence to "significant improvement in the short-term outlook."

4. Single-Family Home Prices

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that while 20-city and 10-city Composite Home Price figures declined through February 2009 (down 18.6% and 18.8%, respectively, from a year ago), for the first time in 16 months the annual decline did not set a new record.

While it signals that the market may be showing some stabilization, or at least what Chairman of the Index Committee David Blitzer called "deceleration in the rate of decline," Blitzer warned that we "need a few more months of data before we can determine if home prices are finally turning around."

Meanwhile, the Pending Home Sales Index rose for the second straight month in March and was up more than 1% over the year-ago figure. The index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) increased 3.2% during the month, to 84.6%.

"This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions and an $8,000 tax credit," wrote Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist.

5. Earnings

The collapse in profits may be nearly played out. As of the last day in April, the 341 S&P 500 companies that had reported earnings for the first quarter were on average about 2% below estimates, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. Silverblatt says the results are overall "not good but definitely not bad" and show that "deterioration has slowed down."

Financial companies reported surprisingly strong numbers. But we can't count on an earnings turnaround for many months, says Silverblatt, who won't consider the numbers to show definitive proof of improvement until fourth-quarter results are in.

6. Jobless Benefit Claims

While unemployment figures are expected to rise still further, there was a signs of hope in the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending April 25. The Department of Labor reported that seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment aid fell by 14,000 to 631,000.

"The past few weeks' claims data are beginning to look increasingly like a peak," wrote Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics.

7. New Orders and Exports

Orders are starting to pick up. While reports from the Institute for Supply Management showed that the manufacturing sector failed to grow for the 15th straight month in April, its New Orders Index increased six percentage points to 47.2%, the highest level since August. The New Exports Orders Index increased 5 percentage points, to 44%.

"While this is a big step forward, there is still a large gap that must be closed before manufacturing begins to grow once again," said Norbert Ore, chair of the institute's survey committee, in a statement. "This is definitely a good start for the second quarter."

8. Credit Markets

Banks are starting to trust one another again. In May, the three-month London interbank offered rate (Libor), a benchmark for interbank loans, fell below 1% for the first time on record. That was down from 1.16% a month ago and 2.51% six months prior.

John Ewan, director of the British Bankers' Association, which sets the rate, told Fortune in an email that "the continued easing of the rates demonstrates that liquidity and confidence are returning to the wholesale markets."