Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.5 in September, and is 1.0 percent below October 2007 when it was 89.8.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a review of the past year is instructive. “Despite the turmoil in the economy, the overall level of pending home sales has been remarkably stable over the past year, holding in a generally narrow range,” he said. “We did see a spike in August when mortgage conditions temporarily improved, which underscores two things – there is a pent-up demand, and access to safe, affordable mortgages will bring more buyers into the market.”
Conditions remain uneven around the country, but some areas that are showing healthy gains in pending home sales from a year ago include many Florida and California markets, Providence, R.I.; Lansing, Mich.; Oklahoma City; and Las Vegas. ²
The PHSI in the South jumped 7.8 percent to 95.9 in October but remains 2.9 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast the index rose 0.6 percent to 68.1 but is 14.1 percent below October 2007. The index in the Midwest declined 4.3 percent to 79.7 in October and is 6.8 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index fell 8.7 percent to 103.7 but is 17.4 percent higher than October 2007.
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said he’s hopeful about considerations by the U.S. Treasury. “Efforts to bring down mortgage interest rates demonstrate a clear understanding of the role housing plays in stabilizing the economy,” McMillan said. “We’re very encouraged by all of the proposals getting serious consideration in Washington to help home buyers. More sales will stabilize home prices by bringing down inventory, and would lessen foreclosure pressure.”
Yun expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract through the first half of 2009, then stabilize and expand in latter part of the year – lifted by a home sales recovery. “Given the critical role of housing in an economic recovery, we’re confident sufficient stimulus will be offered to bring more buyers to the market,” he said.
Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast to total 4.96 million this year, and then increase to 5.19 million in 2009 and 5.55 million in 2010.
New-home sales for 2008 should total 486,000 this year, decline to 393,000 in 2009 and then grow to 446,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are projected at 934,000 units in 2008 and 731,000 next year before rising to 772,000 in 2010.
“Price projections are challenging in an environment with so many variables and divergent local conditions,” Yun said. “The home price correction to date has brought prices in line with fundamentals, but buyer pessimism could cause prices to overshoot downward, resulting in further economic deterioration.”
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably decline to 5.6 percent in the first quarter, rise slowly to 6.0 percent by the end of 2009, and average 6.2 percent in 2010. NAR’s housing affordability index is likely to remain quite favorable, averaging 138 in 2009.
The unemployment rate is estimated at 7.2 percent in the first quarter, rising to 8.3 percent by the end of 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 0.7 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow 1.5 percent in 2009.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Waiting, Waiting, Waiting . . .
It's Taking Longer and Longer to Sell. Here's How Some Owners Cope.
By Kirstin Downey
When Arthur Meisnere and Marilyn Chilton put their Bethesda townhouse on the market, they assumed it would be snapped up within days. Their biggest worry was where they would live until their new D.C. condo was completed.
They packed away their art collection, stored their winter clothes, got rid of the clutter and put their home on the market April 15, priced at $1.1 million. They were right in their belief that people would find the place attractive -- more than 130 people have toured the house -- but more than seven months later, they are still nervously tidying the house each day, living without cherished keepsakes and trying to stay patient.
"It's kind of depressing that no one has liked it enough to make an offer," Meisnere said. "We're drinking wine and crying," he said, only half-joking.
Patience is a character trait that more home sellers are being forced to cultivate because it takes so much more time to sell a house than it used to, here and nationwide. At current purchase rates, according to the National Association of Realtors, it would take 9.9 months for all the existing homes on the market to sell -- if no more were placed up for sale. That's down a bit from the summer highs, when many people put their homes on the block, but still more than double the 4.8 months it would have taken in 1999.
In the Washington area, the average length of time on the market has risen substantially in the past three years, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, which compiles market statistics. In 2005, many homes changed hands within 30 days. Now sellers in Alexandria and Arlington typically wait about two months for their homes to sell; in the District, Loudoun and Fairfax counties, it takes more like three months. And in Prince William, Montgomery and Prince George's counties, the norm in October was closer to four months, according to MRIS.
And those statistics, of course, do not reflect the bad economic news since October, which has further chilled the real estate market. The lag time between listing and sales contract appears to have gotten even longer.
"The market is starting to move, but each time, some new monkey wrench is thrown into the works," said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.
"If you're a seller, it's stressful," said real estate agent Pete Blondin, of ERA Teachers in Herndon. Compounding the strain for both buyers and sellers, he said, is the newly fierce attitude of many lenders. After years of doling out loans with what increasingly appears to have been devil-may-care nonchalance, they are once again studying borrowers' eligibility for mortgages with greater attention to detail.
Tempers can flare as wait times lengthen, Blondin said. He recently handled the sale of a townhouse in Reston, priced at $625,000. The lender carefully scrutinized the buyers, a married couple with good credit and a 10 percent down payment, interviewing several of their creditors and even the renter in an investment property they owned. It took six weeks for the loan to be closed, or about three times as long as it would have taken in a more ordinary market, Blondin said. The sellers, meanwhile, a couple who were divorcing, cooled their heels. The wife was left alone in the house amid the packing boxes.
"They were going bananas," Blondin said. "Holy smoke!"
Sellers are biting their nails and trying to develop their own coping strategies. Meisnere and his wife have cut the asking price for their house by about $50,000, without a sale. He's 71, and he said growing older has made him better able to handle the stress of juggling two mortgages, since they closed on the sale of the condo in the District. "I'm a very impatient person," but age, he said, is helping him "mellow out."
Keeping a businesslike and upbeat attitude has been the key for Christian Spencer, 35, and his wife, Patty Escalante, 32. The accountants were recently married and have moved into their own home, so they would like to sell the house Escalante bought with her mother. Two months ago, they put the Arlington townhouse on the market at $755,000, now reduced to $715,000, but they haven't found a buyer yet.
They are selling the house on their own, and the process has taken a lot of time, they have found. They spend six to seven hours a week holding open houses and fielding inquiries, particularly telephone calls from real estate agents, whom Spencer said he has found to be "pretty persistent." Escalante's mother spends about eight to 10 hours a week cleaning the house, Spencer estimated.
"She never knows when anybody will be coming by," he said.
Spencer said he remains optimistic; it's "only been two months," he said. But now he also comforts himself with the knowledge that they avoided some of the exotic mortgages that are getting other borrowers into trouble. Spencer and Escalante count themselves fortunate that they have handled their money conservatively and can afford the two mortgages -- at least for a while, and until it comes time to start a family.
"You kind of make the best of it, unfortunately," Escalante said.
Many real estate agents now recommend that sellers prepare themselves for a prolonged siege. The first step before entering the market, however, said real estate agent Jane Fairweather of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Bethesda, is to face reality and price the property properly -- in other words, as cheaply as possible. Setting the right price can really expedite the process, she said.
Sellers also should consider the implications of dealing with a property that remains on the market for a long time. If they need to move immediately, because of a job change or family crisis, leaving the house vacant, the yard will still need to be maintained. Vandalism becomes a risk, too.
Sellers eager to cut costs must decide which utilities to keep and which to terminate. The house's heating system can be turned off in the summer but needs to be connected in the winter, for instance.
"Your house will be a disaster if the pipes freeze," Fairweather said. "There are huge consequences to vacating your property."
On the other hand, remaining in place while the home is on the market can be an ordeal. Blondin said the loss of privacy is difficult.
"You're in the shower, and they call to say a buyer will be there in 15 minutes," he said. "It is intrusive."
It also can be hard to live without the little sentimental objects that real estate agents view as needless clutter but that sellers see as priceless mementos.
"They're told to get rid of the clutter, but that's the stuff they like having around," Blondin said.
Marc Nodell and his wife, Dale, don't have much of a clutter problem. They keep their Reston condominium so clean that buyers have asked who did the staging for them. But their decision to buy a house in Loudoun County last month, an opportunity that, they felt, they "couldn't turn down," has left them with two mortgages.
Nodell, in his mid-50s, is trying to take it in stride. He focuses on maintaining a philosophical attitude about the whole process. The condo, an end unit overlooking Reston Town Center, priced at $449,900, has been on the market for about a month, but he realized it could take a good deal longer to sell.
"You've got to plan for it now," he said, noting that he has seen similar boom and bust real estate cycles in his 30 years living and working in the Washington area. "It would be nice if it sold, but it may take a while."
By Kirstin Downey
When Arthur Meisnere and Marilyn Chilton put their Bethesda townhouse on the market, they assumed it would be snapped up within days. Their biggest worry was where they would live until their new D.C. condo was completed.
They packed away their art collection, stored their winter clothes, got rid of the clutter and put their home on the market April 15, priced at $1.1 million. They were right in their belief that people would find the place attractive -- more than 130 people have toured the house -- but more than seven months later, they are still nervously tidying the house each day, living without cherished keepsakes and trying to stay patient.
"It's kind of depressing that no one has liked it enough to make an offer," Meisnere said. "We're drinking wine and crying," he said, only half-joking.
Patience is a character trait that more home sellers are being forced to cultivate because it takes so much more time to sell a house than it used to, here and nationwide. At current purchase rates, according to the National Association of Realtors, it would take 9.9 months for all the existing homes on the market to sell -- if no more were placed up for sale. That's down a bit from the summer highs, when many people put their homes on the block, but still more than double the 4.8 months it would have taken in 1999.
In the Washington area, the average length of time on the market has risen substantially in the past three years, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, which compiles market statistics. In 2005, many homes changed hands within 30 days. Now sellers in Alexandria and Arlington typically wait about two months for their homes to sell; in the District, Loudoun and Fairfax counties, it takes more like three months. And in Prince William, Montgomery and Prince George's counties, the norm in October was closer to four months, according to MRIS.
And those statistics, of course, do not reflect the bad economic news since October, which has further chilled the real estate market. The lag time between listing and sales contract appears to have gotten even longer.
"The market is starting to move, but each time, some new monkey wrench is thrown into the works," said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.
"If you're a seller, it's stressful," said real estate agent Pete Blondin, of ERA Teachers in Herndon. Compounding the strain for both buyers and sellers, he said, is the newly fierce attitude of many lenders. After years of doling out loans with what increasingly appears to have been devil-may-care nonchalance, they are once again studying borrowers' eligibility for mortgages with greater attention to detail.
Tempers can flare as wait times lengthen, Blondin said. He recently handled the sale of a townhouse in Reston, priced at $625,000. The lender carefully scrutinized the buyers, a married couple with good credit and a 10 percent down payment, interviewing several of their creditors and even the renter in an investment property they owned. It took six weeks for the loan to be closed, or about three times as long as it would have taken in a more ordinary market, Blondin said. The sellers, meanwhile, a couple who were divorcing, cooled their heels. The wife was left alone in the house amid the packing boxes.
"They were going bananas," Blondin said. "Holy smoke!"
Sellers are biting their nails and trying to develop their own coping strategies. Meisnere and his wife have cut the asking price for their house by about $50,000, without a sale. He's 71, and he said growing older has made him better able to handle the stress of juggling two mortgages, since they closed on the sale of the condo in the District. "I'm a very impatient person," but age, he said, is helping him "mellow out."
Keeping a businesslike and upbeat attitude has been the key for Christian Spencer, 35, and his wife, Patty Escalante, 32. The accountants were recently married and have moved into their own home, so they would like to sell the house Escalante bought with her mother. Two months ago, they put the Arlington townhouse on the market at $755,000, now reduced to $715,000, but they haven't found a buyer yet.
They are selling the house on their own, and the process has taken a lot of time, they have found. They spend six to seven hours a week holding open houses and fielding inquiries, particularly telephone calls from real estate agents, whom Spencer said he has found to be "pretty persistent." Escalante's mother spends about eight to 10 hours a week cleaning the house, Spencer estimated.
"She never knows when anybody will be coming by," he said.
Spencer said he remains optimistic; it's "only been two months," he said. But now he also comforts himself with the knowledge that they avoided some of the exotic mortgages that are getting other borrowers into trouble. Spencer and Escalante count themselves fortunate that they have handled their money conservatively and can afford the two mortgages -- at least for a while, and until it comes time to start a family.
"You kind of make the best of it, unfortunately," Escalante said.
Many real estate agents now recommend that sellers prepare themselves for a prolonged siege. The first step before entering the market, however, said real estate agent Jane Fairweather of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Bethesda, is to face reality and price the property properly -- in other words, as cheaply as possible. Setting the right price can really expedite the process, she said.
Sellers also should consider the implications of dealing with a property that remains on the market for a long time. If they need to move immediately, because of a job change or family crisis, leaving the house vacant, the yard will still need to be maintained. Vandalism becomes a risk, too.
Sellers eager to cut costs must decide which utilities to keep and which to terminate. The house's heating system can be turned off in the summer but needs to be connected in the winter, for instance.
"Your house will be a disaster if the pipes freeze," Fairweather said. "There are huge consequences to vacating your property."
On the other hand, remaining in place while the home is on the market can be an ordeal. Blondin said the loss of privacy is difficult.
"You're in the shower, and they call to say a buyer will be there in 15 minutes," he said. "It is intrusive."
It also can be hard to live without the little sentimental objects that real estate agents view as needless clutter but that sellers see as priceless mementos.
"They're told to get rid of the clutter, but that's the stuff they like having around," Blondin said.
Marc Nodell and his wife, Dale, don't have much of a clutter problem. They keep their Reston condominium so clean that buyers have asked who did the staging for them. But their decision to buy a house in Loudoun County last month, an opportunity that, they felt, they "couldn't turn down," has left them with two mortgages.
Nodell, in his mid-50s, is trying to take it in stride. He focuses on maintaining a philosophical attitude about the whole process. The condo, an end unit overlooking Reston Town Center, priced at $449,900, has been on the market for about a month, but he realized it could take a good deal longer to sell.
"You've got to plan for it now," he said, noting that he has seen similar boom and bust real estate cycles in his 30 years living and working in the Washington area. "It would be nice if it sold, but it may take a while."
Friday, December 5, 2008
Curb Appeal Matters Now More Than Ever, Say Realtors®
For the second year in a row, Realtors® report that exterior remodeling projects return the most money as a percentage of cost, as detailed in the 2008 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report.
On a national level, wood deck additions and all types of siding replacements – upscale fiber cement, midrange vinyl, and upscale foam-backed vinyl – returned more than 80 percent of project costs upon resale. Of these, the most profitable project was upscale fiber cement siding, which recouped 86.7 percent of costs, followed by wood decks at 81.8 percent, midrange vinyl siding at 80.7 percent, and upscale foam-backed vinyl siding at 80.4 percent.
“Because today’s buyers have much more to choose from in the way of inventory, any home for sale must make a positive first impression,” said National Association of Realtors® President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth. “As a trusted source for real estate information, Realtors® understand what attracts and motivates their buyer clients, which is why the results of this year’s Cost vs. Value report underscore the importance of curb appeal in the buyer’s eye.”
The 2008 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report compares construction costs with resale values for 30 midrange and upscale remodeling projects comprising additions, remodels and replacements in 79 markets across the country, expanding from 60 markets last year. Data are grouped into nine U.S. regions, following the divisions established by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the 11th consecutive year that the report, which is produced by Hanley Wood, LLC, was completed in cooperation with REALTOR Magazine, as Realtors® provided their insight into local markets and buyer home preferences within those markets.
In addition to wood decks and siding, window replacements and kitchen remodels also returned a relatively high percentage of remodeling costs on a national basis. All types of window replacements – upscale and midrange wood and upscale and midscale vinyl – returned more than 76 percent of costs. A major midrange kitchen remodel returned 76.0 percent of project costs, while a minor midrange kitchen remodel returned 79.5 percent of costs.
On a national level, bathroom remodels, while still a relatively good investment, do not return as high a percentage as in previous years. A midrange bathroom remodel was estimated to return 74.4 percent on resale, comparable to a midrange attic-to-bedroom conversion, at 73.6 percent of costs recouped, and a midrange basement remodel, at 72.7 percent of costs recouped.
As in last year’s report, the least profitable remodeling projects in terms of resale value were home office remodels, sunroom additions, and back-up power generators, returning only 54.4 percent, 56.6 percent, and 57.1 percent, respectively, of project costs.
Although most regions followed national trends, the regions that consistently were estimated to return a higher percentage of remodeling costs upon resale were the Pacific region of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington; the West South Central region of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas; the East South Central region of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee; and the South Atlantic region of the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.
The regions that generally returned the lowest percentage of costs were New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont), East North Central (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin), West North Central (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota), and Middle Atlantic (New York and Pennsylvania).
McMillan explained that the resale value of any given remodeling project depends on a variety of factors. “A home’s overall condition, availability and condition of surrounding properties, location, and regional economic climate are all factors that will influence the value of any remodeling project,” he said. “That’s why it’s important to consult with professionals like Realtors® in your area when you want to enhance the value of your home. Realtors® see hundreds, if not thousands, of homes every year with their buyer clients and can provide valuable insight into what projects and improvements will make a difference with buyers in your area.”
Results of the report are summarized in the December 2008 issue of REALTOR® Magazine. The issue also includes examples of actual remodeling projects that were less expensive than many of the report’s cost estimates. Full project descriptions, as well as national, regional and local project data for the 79 cities covered by the report will be posted at www.costvsvalue.com by December 5. “Cost vs. Value” is a registered trademark of Hanley Wood, LLC.
Hanley Wood, LLC, is the premier media company serving housing and construction. Through four operating divisions, the company produces award-winning magazines and Web sites, marquee trade shows and events, rich data, and custom marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading provider of home plans. Founded in 1976, Hanley Wood is a $240 million company owned by JPMorgan Partners, LLC, a private equity affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
On a national level, wood deck additions and all types of siding replacements – upscale fiber cement, midrange vinyl, and upscale foam-backed vinyl – returned more than 80 percent of project costs upon resale. Of these, the most profitable project was upscale fiber cement siding, which recouped 86.7 percent of costs, followed by wood decks at 81.8 percent, midrange vinyl siding at 80.7 percent, and upscale foam-backed vinyl siding at 80.4 percent.
“Because today’s buyers have much more to choose from in the way of inventory, any home for sale must make a positive first impression,” said National Association of Realtors® President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth. “As a trusted source for real estate information, Realtors® understand what attracts and motivates their buyer clients, which is why the results of this year’s Cost vs. Value report underscore the importance of curb appeal in the buyer’s eye.”
The 2008 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report compares construction costs with resale values for 30 midrange and upscale remodeling projects comprising additions, remodels and replacements in 79 markets across the country, expanding from 60 markets last year. Data are grouped into nine U.S. regions, following the divisions established by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the 11th consecutive year that the report, which is produced by Hanley Wood, LLC, was completed in cooperation with REALTOR Magazine, as Realtors® provided their insight into local markets and buyer home preferences within those markets.
In addition to wood decks and siding, window replacements and kitchen remodels also returned a relatively high percentage of remodeling costs on a national basis. All types of window replacements – upscale and midrange wood and upscale and midscale vinyl – returned more than 76 percent of costs. A major midrange kitchen remodel returned 76.0 percent of project costs, while a minor midrange kitchen remodel returned 79.5 percent of costs.
On a national level, bathroom remodels, while still a relatively good investment, do not return as high a percentage as in previous years. A midrange bathroom remodel was estimated to return 74.4 percent on resale, comparable to a midrange attic-to-bedroom conversion, at 73.6 percent of costs recouped, and a midrange basement remodel, at 72.7 percent of costs recouped.
As in last year’s report, the least profitable remodeling projects in terms of resale value were home office remodels, sunroom additions, and back-up power generators, returning only 54.4 percent, 56.6 percent, and 57.1 percent, respectively, of project costs.
Although most regions followed national trends, the regions that consistently were estimated to return a higher percentage of remodeling costs upon resale were the Pacific region of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington; the West South Central region of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas; the East South Central region of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee; and the South Atlantic region of the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.
The regions that generally returned the lowest percentage of costs were New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont), East North Central (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin), West North Central (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota), and Middle Atlantic (New York and Pennsylvania).
McMillan explained that the resale value of any given remodeling project depends on a variety of factors. “A home’s overall condition, availability and condition of surrounding properties, location, and regional economic climate are all factors that will influence the value of any remodeling project,” he said. “That’s why it’s important to consult with professionals like Realtors® in your area when you want to enhance the value of your home. Realtors® see hundreds, if not thousands, of homes every year with their buyer clients and can provide valuable insight into what projects and improvements will make a difference with buyers in your area.”
Results of the report are summarized in the December 2008 issue of REALTOR® Magazine. The issue also includes examples of actual remodeling projects that were less expensive than many of the report’s cost estimates. Full project descriptions, as well as national, regional and local project data for the 79 cities covered by the report will be posted at www.costvsvalue.com by December 5. “Cost vs. Value” is a registered trademark of Hanley Wood, LLC.
Hanley Wood, LLC, is the premier media company serving housing and construction. Through four operating divisions, the company produces award-winning magazines and Web sites, marquee trade shows and events, rich data, and custom marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading provider of home plans. Founded in 1976, Hanley Wood is a $240 million company owned by JPMorgan Partners, LLC, a private equity affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Your 2009 Recession Survival Guide
by Kimberly Palmer, James Pethokoukis, and Luke Mullins
How to Weather the Storm
Even though you can't control the economy, you don't have to just sit there and be buffeted by these big economic forces. You can do stuff!
Live below your means. Some people are shopping for this year's holiday gifts while still paying off their 2007 purchases, says Gail Cunningham of the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. Now's the time to re-evaluate those habits, she says, before piling on even more debt. You can make sure you pay as little as possible for gifts by using online comparison websites. Another option is taking advantage of layaway programs at retailers that let you pay off purchases before you bring them home. That way, you avoid paying high interest rates to credit card companies.
Bolster that emergency cushion. Even in flush times, financial advisers say consumers should have about six months' worth of expenses in their bank account to guard against job loss or other emergencies. Now, with the unemployment rate headed toward 7 percent, it's more important than ever.
Toughen up your portfolio. It doesn't matter how smart your investing strategy is if you won't stick with it. And the roller-coaster stock market is sure making that tough to do. Jittery investors might want to think about stashing somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of their portfolio in less risky investments, such as bond funds, treasury bills, or money market funds. But don't overdo it. Investors who are decades away from retirement should keep the bulk of their portfolios in stocks. If you want to dial down your risk, look to stock funds that have been bucking the bear, such as Apex Mid Cap Growth and Reynolds Blue Chip Growth. Also, exchange-traded funds, which look like mutual funds but trade like stocks, give you more diversified exposure to a particular sector or industry than betting on individual issues.
Save for a down payment. Unlike in the housing-boom days, borrowers will have to be able to make a sizable down payment to qualify for the lowest mortgage interest rates. So if you're looking to go bargain hunting in real estate, begin setting aside a little bit of cash each paycheck to put toward a down payment. When you begin to feel better about your job security, you'll be ready to take the plunge.
How to Take Advantage of the Bad Times
Time to stop surviving and shift to thriving. It's an ill wind that doesn't blow some good, and you need to make the most of the opportunities that are out there.
Energize your career. Don't just worry about keeping your job--make it better. Lean times present an opportunity for niche employees to put other skills to work and rebuild their reputations as go-to multitaskers. Employees should actively try to pick up the work of their departed peers. Also, volunteering to take on new responsibilities can pave the way for a negotiation in six to eight months, when an employee can prove that the job has evolved and is now worth more on the market. A new outlook and approach like this will help you hold on to your current job, or pave the way to your new career.
Refinance your home. Recent Federal Reserve announcements intended to ease the financial crisis have sharply reduced 30-year fixed mortgage rates, to 5.5 percent at the start of the week vs. 6.2 percent just two weeks earlier, according to HSH Associates. "Recession equals lower Treasury rates, which equals lower mortgage rates, which equals a great opportunity to refinance," says Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
Buy a home. Home prices nationally have already fallen more than 20 percent from their 2006 peak, and in certain boom-and-bust states the declines have been even more precipitous. So if you've got a stable job, good credit, a down payment, and a strong stomach, there are certainly buying opportunities out there for you. "I can point to properties here in [Florida] that are off 40 to 50 percent from their peak bubble levels," says Larson, who is based in Florida. "This is creating an opportunity."
Look for the next great stock investments. Not only can you pretty much count on next year being one of lousy economic growth, you can for sure count on Barack Obama being president. And there are a few stocks out there that could get a boost from an Obama administration, including Chesapeake Energy (natural gas) and AeroVironment (aerial vehicles for Afghanistan). Also, keep an eye out for "growthy" (high earnings growth) small stocks, especially techs, which often are the first ones to rise when a new economic expansion nears. Hey, the recession can't last forever, right?
Forget about keeping up with the Joneses. Since almost everyone's budgets are strained right now, cutting back is en vogue. Pollster John Zogby has found that a growing segment of the population has become more focused on spiritual fulfillment than on material success. Similarly, futurist Faith Popcorn's research shows that the concept of "frugality" has taken hold among families, with parents increasingly teaching their children to reconsider how much they consume and whether they could do with less. The "new frugality" movement, as she calls it, will usher in a new set of values for the next generation, she says.
Negotiate almost everything. From credit cards to clothes, companies are open to making deals as they struggle to keep customers. "If you're a good customer, [credit card companies] may be more apt to negotiate your rate because they don't want to lose you," says McHenry of IndexCreditCards.com. At farmers markets and clothing boutiques, simply asking, "Can I get a discount?" can lead to a lower price. Paying with cash increases the chances of making a deal because it allows retailers to avoid credit card transaction fees.
Copyrighted, U.S.News & World Report, L.P. All rights reserved.
How to Weather the Storm
Even though you can't control the economy, you don't have to just sit there and be buffeted by these big economic forces. You can do stuff!
Live below your means. Some people are shopping for this year's holiday gifts while still paying off their 2007 purchases, says Gail Cunningham of the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. Now's the time to re-evaluate those habits, she says, before piling on even more debt. You can make sure you pay as little as possible for gifts by using online comparison websites. Another option is taking advantage of layaway programs at retailers that let you pay off purchases before you bring them home. That way, you avoid paying high interest rates to credit card companies.
Bolster that emergency cushion. Even in flush times, financial advisers say consumers should have about six months' worth of expenses in their bank account to guard against job loss or other emergencies. Now, with the unemployment rate headed toward 7 percent, it's more important than ever.
Toughen up your portfolio. It doesn't matter how smart your investing strategy is if you won't stick with it. And the roller-coaster stock market is sure making that tough to do. Jittery investors might want to think about stashing somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of their portfolio in less risky investments, such as bond funds, treasury bills, or money market funds. But don't overdo it. Investors who are decades away from retirement should keep the bulk of their portfolios in stocks. If you want to dial down your risk, look to stock funds that have been bucking the bear, such as Apex Mid Cap Growth and Reynolds Blue Chip Growth. Also, exchange-traded funds, which look like mutual funds but trade like stocks, give you more diversified exposure to a particular sector or industry than betting on individual issues.
Save for a down payment. Unlike in the housing-boom days, borrowers will have to be able to make a sizable down payment to qualify for the lowest mortgage interest rates. So if you're looking to go bargain hunting in real estate, begin setting aside a little bit of cash each paycheck to put toward a down payment. When you begin to feel better about your job security, you'll be ready to take the plunge.
How to Take Advantage of the Bad Times
Time to stop surviving and shift to thriving. It's an ill wind that doesn't blow some good, and you need to make the most of the opportunities that are out there.
Energize your career. Don't just worry about keeping your job--make it better. Lean times present an opportunity for niche employees to put other skills to work and rebuild their reputations as go-to multitaskers. Employees should actively try to pick up the work of their departed peers. Also, volunteering to take on new responsibilities can pave the way for a negotiation in six to eight months, when an employee can prove that the job has evolved and is now worth more on the market. A new outlook and approach like this will help you hold on to your current job, or pave the way to your new career.
Refinance your home. Recent Federal Reserve announcements intended to ease the financial crisis have sharply reduced 30-year fixed mortgage rates, to 5.5 percent at the start of the week vs. 6.2 percent just two weeks earlier, according to HSH Associates. "Recession equals lower Treasury rates, which equals lower mortgage rates, which equals a great opportunity to refinance," says Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
Buy a home. Home prices nationally have already fallen more than 20 percent from their 2006 peak, and in certain boom-and-bust states the declines have been even more precipitous. So if you've got a stable job, good credit, a down payment, and a strong stomach, there are certainly buying opportunities out there for you. "I can point to properties here in [Florida] that are off 40 to 50 percent from their peak bubble levels," says Larson, who is based in Florida. "This is creating an opportunity."
Look for the next great stock investments. Not only can you pretty much count on next year being one of lousy economic growth, you can for sure count on Barack Obama being president. And there are a few stocks out there that could get a boost from an Obama administration, including Chesapeake Energy (natural gas) and AeroVironment (aerial vehicles for Afghanistan). Also, keep an eye out for "growthy" (high earnings growth) small stocks, especially techs, which often are the first ones to rise when a new economic expansion nears. Hey, the recession can't last forever, right?
Forget about keeping up with the Joneses. Since almost everyone's budgets are strained right now, cutting back is en vogue. Pollster John Zogby has found that a growing segment of the population has become more focused on spiritual fulfillment than on material success. Similarly, futurist Faith Popcorn's research shows that the concept of "frugality" has taken hold among families, with parents increasingly teaching their children to reconsider how much they consume and whether they could do with less. The "new frugality" movement, as she calls it, will usher in a new set of values for the next generation, she says.
Negotiate almost everything. From credit cards to clothes, companies are open to making deals as they struggle to keep customers. "If you're a good customer, [credit card companies] may be more apt to negotiate your rate because they don't want to lose you," says McHenry of IndexCreditCards.com. At farmers markets and clothing boutiques, simply asking, "Can I get a discount?" can lead to a lower price. Paying with cash increases the chances of making a deal because it allows retailers to avoid credit card transaction fees.
Copyrighted, U.S.News & World Report, L.P. All rights reserved.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Self-Employed Are Frozen Out of Mortgages
By NICK TIMIRAOS and RUTH SIMON
The government's recent moves to backstop the mortgage market have made it easier for many people with decent credit scores to get a loan. But for many self-employed people -- even those with pristine credit -- the mortgage freeze has yet to thaw.
A reversal of the loose lending practices that led to the banking industry's current woes was certainly expected. But some economists and mortgage brokers say lending standards have become overly restrictive, which could be exacerbating the credit crunch and helping push down home prices further.
Locked Out of a Home Loan
* Some self-employed professionals are not benefiting from federal moves to loosen the mortgage market.
* The volume of jumbo loans -- those that exceed limits for government backing -- fell by more than 70% for the first nine months of the year from a year earlier.
"Underwriting criteria have swung from foolish ease to tighter than any in modern times," says Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo.
The changes are increasingly frustrating a group of borrowers whom banks once coveted: affluent self-employed professionals such as doctors, lawyers, accountants and small-business owners.
Hubert Noguera, a 38-year-old medical-device engineer who also owns a small business, is one of them. He can't get approved for a loan, even though he has a strong 800 credit score and is prepared to make a 40% down payment on a house near San Francisco in the $800,000-to-$900,000 range. Mr. Noguera says he has assets worth three times the $500,000 loan he's requesting and is in the process of selling his share of a recently inherited residence in Saratoga, Calif., worth $1.1 million.
Banks have turned down the loan because the amount he's requesting appears high relative to the portion of his income that he can fully document -- and they won't consider his other income, says his mortgage broker, Connie Madrid.
"My blood type is O positive. What else do they want?" Mr. Noguera recalls asking Ms. Madrid.
The chief problem for self-employed people is that they don't have W-2 forms from an employer to document their full wages. For proof of income, they must rely solely on their income-tax returns. But income for the self-employed is often understated for tax purposes, in part because they tend to take large business-related deductions. Self-employed borrowers who don't take any big deductions won't likely face the same difficulty getting a loan.
"When you're self-employed, the write-offs that you use help at tax time -- but that means when you apply for a loan, your income won't reflect your cash flow," says Richard Redmond, a mortgage broker in Larkspur, Calif. Lenders are also cautious because nonsalaried workers can see greater volatility in their annual income.
In the past, most self-employed people took out "stated-income loans," which don't require borrowers to fully document their income. Such borrowers typically made substantial down payments, had strong credit profiles and paid a slight premium -- around 0.25 percentage point -- on their interest rates. Defaults were low.
That changed as the loans grew in popularity during the housing boom and expanded beyond their traditional market of affluent professionals. Stated-income loans eventually became disparaged as "liar's loans" because borrowers' incomes were frequently exaggerated.
Many banks have eliminated stated-income loans entirely, and Freddie Mac -- which, with Fannie Mae, is one of two government-held buyers of mortgages -- will end its stated-income lending program designed for self-employed borrowers next month.
"If the market stays as it is, we've frozen thousands and thousands of good borrowers out of the mortgage market," says Peter Ogilvie, past president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. "People who've demonstrated they can pay their bills cannot get a mortgage -- and that's people who have homes."
Mr. Noguera's loan hasn't been approved because he receives part of his income from a human-resources consulting business that he also inherited last year, but lenders won't count income from the firm because he doesn't have two years of reported earnings.
"Six months ago, I know I could have done this no problem," says Ms. Madrid, his broker. She says that even the loan officer at Wells Fargo & Co., for example, was surprised that the loan couldn't be approved. A Wells Fargo spokesman wouldn't comment on the particular case, but said in a statement: "Like everyone else in financial services, Wells Fargo has adjusted underwriting standards to effectively manage risk in this difficult credit environment."
This part of the market is tightening despite the government's attempts to jump-start mortgage activity. Earlier this year, it approved larger loan limits for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. Last week, the government announced it would buy $600 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities and debt from Fannie and Freddie, which helped push down mortgage rates on government-backed loans by a third of a percentage point.
Self-employed borrowers aren't the only ones finding themselves shut out despite having good credit and savings. Lenders have also sharply tightened requirements for so-called jumbo loans, which are too big to qualify for government backing. That's because banks are relying heavily on loans guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie and the FHA, which have loan limits that vary by market from $417,000 to $729,000. Government-backed lending now accounts for 87% of loan volume, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.
At J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., for example, more than 95% of mortgage originations are now sold to a government agency. In certain distressed markets, such as South Florida, J.P. Morgan Chase won't go above a 60% loan-to-value on jumbo mortgages. Overall, jumbo-loan originations declined 71% to $87 billion in the first nine months of 2008 from $303 billion during the same period last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.
Those who can get a jumbo loan are finding them very expensive. Rates on jumbo loans averaged 7.49% last week, nearly 1.6 percentage points above the rates on loans eligible for government backing, according to HSH Associates, financial publishers in Pompton Plains, N.J. The gap widened from 1.3 percentage points two weeks ago. In July 2007, the gap between the two was as little as 0.25 percentage point.
Mike Castrichini, a chiropractor in Scottsdale, Ariz., has been caught between the tightened jumbo market and the disappearance of stated-income loans, which he says he's used for more than a decade without any problem. He's been unable to find a lender willing to refinance the $900,000 adjustable-rate mortgage on his primary residence, which he says is worth around $1.1 million now, down from $1.8 million a few years ago. "Nobody will touch the loan," says Steve Walsh, his mortgage broker.
The 42-year-old Mr. Castrichini, who has a solid 787 credit score, owns his two offices and a small strip mall in Illinois. Even if he's approved for the loan, he laments the fact that he is facing a much higher interest rate. "I'm going to have to cut back," he says, expressing concern that he'll be unable to keep his children in private school.
Banks, meanwhile, are tightening their requirements beyond those of Fannie and Freddie. J.P. Morgan Chase, for instance, has set tighter standards than the agencies for loans that exceed 80% of the home's value and has stopped making loans for second homes and condos in Florida, according to a recent investor presentation.
"No one wants to be stuck with a loan," says Mr. Walsh, the Arizona broker. He says underwriters he works with have been told they'll be fired if a loan they originate can't be sold to Fannie, Freddie or the FHA.
Lenders have tighter standards than government agencies because they "usually have a more granular understanding of where credit losses are coming from," says Sanjiv Das, chief executive of Citigroup Inc.'s CitiMortgage unit. Lenders say they are also concerned that Fannie and Freddie will force them to repurchase delinquent loans.
Brokers say there's little borrowers can do to improve their chances of getting a loan right now, but that they can prepare themselves once guidelines ease. The most important steps include maintaining a stellar credit rating and being able to show liquid assets. Borrowers who can't get a jumbo loan will have a better chance at getting a so-called conforming loan -- one not exceeding $417,000, with a higher ceiling in some markets.
Mr. Redmond, the California broker, says he sees enough rejected borrowers with strong credit that he is setting up a $15 million private lending fund targeting those good credit risks. He warns that the inability of creditworthy borrowers to refinance mortgages, particularly those that have rising rates, could spur forced sales and further depress home values.
"Fannie and Freddie can sit on the stoop with buckets of cheap money, but if they have raised the bar too high for the borrowers to get at it, it doesn't matter," he says.
The government's recent moves to backstop the mortgage market have made it easier for many people with decent credit scores to get a loan. But for many self-employed people -- even those with pristine credit -- the mortgage freeze has yet to thaw.
A reversal of the loose lending practices that led to the banking industry's current woes was certainly expected. But some economists and mortgage brokers say lending standards have become overly restrictive, which could be exacerbating the credit crunch and helping push down home prices further.
Locked Out of a Home Loan
* Some self-employed professionals are not benefiting from federal moves to loosen the mortgage market.
* The volume of jumbo loans -- those that exceed limits for government backing -- fell by more than 70% for the first nine months of the year from a year earlier.
"Underwriting criteria have swung from foolish ease to tighter than any in modern times," says Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo.
The changes are increasingly frustrating a group of borrowers whom banks once coveted: affluent self-employed professionals such as doctors, lawyers, accountants and small-business owners.
Hubert Noguera, a 38-year-old medical-device engineer who also owns a small business, is one of them. He can't get approved for a loan, even though he has a strong 800 credit score and is prepared to make a 40% down payment on a house near San Francisco in the $800,000-to-$900,000 range. Mr. Noguera says he has assets worth three times the $500,000 loan he's requesting and is in the process of selling his share of a recently inherited residence in Saratoga, Calif., worth $1.1 million.
Banks have turned down the loan because the amount he's requesting appears high relative to the portion of his income that he can fully document -- and they won't consider his other income, says his mortgage broker, Connie Madrid.
"My blood type is O positive. What else do they want?" Mr. Noguera recalls asking Ms. Madrid.
The chief problem for self-employed people is that they don't have W-2 forms from an employer to document their full wages. For proof of income, they must rely solely on their income-tax returns. But income for the self-employed is often understated for tax purposes, in part because they tend to take large business-related deductions. Self-employed borrowers who don't take any big deductions won't likely face the same difficulty getting a loan.
"When you're self-employed, the write-offs that you use help at tax time -- but that means when you apply for a loan, your income won't reflect your cash flow," says Richard Redmond, a mortgage broker in Larkspur, Calif. Lenders are also cautious because nonsalaried workers can see greater volatility in their annual income.
In the past, most self-employed people took out "stated-income loans," which don't require borrowers to fully document their income. Such borrowers typically made substantial down payments, had strong credit profiles and paid a slight premium -- around 0.25 percentage point -- on their interest rates. Defaults were low.
That changed as the loans grew in popularity during the housing boom and expanded beyond their traditional market of affluent professionals. Stated-income loans eventually became disparaged as "liar's loans" because borrowers' incomes were frequently exaggerated.
Many banks have eliminated stated-income loans entirely, and Freddie Mac -- which, with Fannie Mae, is one of two government-held buyers of mortgages -- will end its stated-income lending program designed for self-employed borrowers next month.
"If the market stays as it is, we've frozen thousands and thousands of good borrowers out of the mortgage market," says Peter Ogilvie, past president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. "People who've demonstrated they can pay their bills cannot get a mortgage -- and that's people who have homes."
Mr. Noguera's loan hasn't been approved because he receives part of his income from a human-resources consulting business that he also inherited last year, but lenders won't count income from the firm because he doesn't have two years of reported earnings.
"Six months ago, I know I could have done this no problem," says Ms. Madrid, his broker. She says that even the loan officer at Wells Fargo & Co., for example, was surprised that the loan couldn't be approved. A Wells Fargo spokesman wouldn't comment on the particular case, but said in a statement: "Like everyone else in financial services, Wells Fargo has adjusted underwriting standards to effectively manage risk in this difficult credit environment."
This part of the market is tightening despite the government's attempts to jump-start mortgage activity. Earlier this year, it approved larger loan limits for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. Last week, the government announced it would buy $600 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities and debt from Fannie and Freddie, which helped push down mortgage rates on government-backed loans by a third of a percentage point.
Self-employed borrowers aren't the only ones finding themselves shut out despite having good credit and savings. Lenders have also sharply tightened requirements for so-called jumbo loans, which are too big to qualify for government backing. That's because banks are relying heavily on loans guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie and the FHA, which have loan limits that vary by market from $417,000 to $729,000. Government-backed lending now accounts for 87% of loan volume, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.
At J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., for example, more than 95% of mortgage originations are now sold to a government agency. In certain distressed markets, such as South Florida, J.P. Morgan Chase won't go above a 60% loan-to-value on jumbo mortgages. Overall, jumbo-loan originations declined 71% to $87 billion in the first nine months of 2008 from $303 billion during the same period last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.
Those who can get a jumbo loan are finding them very expensive. Rates on jumbo loans averaged 7.49% last week, nearly 1.6 percentage points above the rates on loans eligible for government backing, according to HSH Associates, financial publishers in Pompton Plains, N.J. The gap widened from 1.3 percentage points two weeks ago. In July 2007, the gap between the two was as little as 0.25 percentage point.
Mike Castrichini, a chiropractor in Scottsdale, Ariz., has been caught between the tightened jumbo market and the disappearance of stated-income loans, which he says he's used for more than a decade without any problem. He's been unable to find a lender willing to refinance the $900,000 adjustable-rate mortgage on his primary residence, which he says is worth around $1.1 million now, down from $1.8 million a few years ago. "Nobody will touch the loan," says Steve Walsh, his mortgage broker.
The 42-year-old Mr. Castrichini, who has a solid 787 credit score, owns his two offices and a small strip mall in Illinois. Even if he's approved for the loan, he laments the fact that he is facing a much higher interest rate. "I'm going to have to cut back," he says, expressing concern that he'll be unable to keep his children in private school.
Banks, meanwhile, are tightening their requirements beyond those of Fannie and Freddie. J.P. Morgan Chase, for instance, has set tighter standards than the agencies for loans that exceed 80% of the home's value and has stopped making loans for second homes and condos in Florida, according to a recent investor presentation.
"No one wants to be stuck with a loan," says Mr. Walsh, the Arizona broker. He says underwriters he works with have been told they'll be fired if a loan they originate can't be sold to Fannie, Freddie or the FHA.
Lenders have tighter standards than government agencies because they "usually have a more granular understanding of where credit losses are coming from," says Sanjiv Das, chief executive of Citigroup Inc.'s CitiMortgage unit. Lenders say they are also concerned that Fannie and Freddie will force them to repurchase delinquent loans.
Brokers say there's little borrowers can do to improve their chances of getting a loan right now, but that they can prepare themselves once guidelines ease. The most important steps include maintaining a stellar credit rating and being able to show liquid assets. Borrowers who can't get a jumbo loan will have a better chance at getting a so-called conforming loan -- one not exceeding $417,000, with a higher ceiling in some markets.
Mr. Redmond, the California broker, says he sees enough rejected borrowers with strong credit that he is setting up a $15 million private lending fund targeting those good credit risks. He warns that the inability of creditworthy borrowers to refinance mortgages, particularly those that have rising rates, could spur forced sales and further depress home values.
"Fannie and Freddie can sit on the stoop with buckets of cheap money, but if they have raised the bar too high for the borrowers to get at it, it doesn't matter," he says.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Lower Mortgage Rates Are Not the Answer
By JUNE FLETCHER
On Tuesday, the government announced an $800 billion plan to stimulate the economy by buying $600 billion worth of mortgage-backed assets and $200 billion in consumer-debt securities. The intent is to make it easier for consumers to buy cars, pay for college tuition and get credit cards. Mortgage interest rates fell about a half-percentage point on the news. (See "Fed Aid Sets Off a Rush to Refinance")
Will the effort finally get the economy moving again? Frankly, I doubt it.
Lower mortgage rates can help people buy housing, but only if they feel secure enough in their jobs, and confident enough in their financial future to take the plunge. Given that consumers are drowning in debt -- especially housing debt -- fearful of layoffs, and waiting for housing prices to hit bottom, it's unlikely that they'll react to this initiative with a spending spree.
Consumers don't react to debt like companies, though the government is behaving like they do. Giving companies better access to credit allows them to meet payrolls while they adjust their production and expenses in response to tighter economic condition. But families who can't pay their bills can't lay off a spouse and kids. For them, debt grows from burdensome to monstrous as interest charges accumulate. Eventually, the load becomes overwhelming.
Testifying before the Senate on July 28, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren noted that the situation for the middle class has worsened during this decade. She explained that, adjusted for inflation, median household income fell $1,175 from 2000 to 2007, while expenses increased $4,655, pushed primarily by higher costs for mortgages, gas, health insurance and food, in that order. Families with children have borne an additional $3,180 in expenses for day care, after-school care and college tuition. To help cope with these rising costs, families turned to home equity lines of credit and refinancing -- effectively sucking the equity out of their homes -- as well as credit card debt. Nearly 44% of American households now carry a balance on their credit cards, she testified; to retire it, a family earning the median income of $48,201 would have to turn over every paycheck for nearly three months.
Foreclosure or bankruptcy will take a toll on a certain portion of these families, even though, as Ms. Warren points out in her book "The Two-Income Trap" (Basic Books: 2003), that's something most people desperately try to avoid. After studying 2,200 families that had filed for bankruptcy, she found that families that fail financially are most likely to be ones with children, who are struggling to buy and maintain homes in decent school districts, not flippers or status-seekers out to make a quick buck. For every family that officially declares bankruptcy, she writes, there are seven more whose debt loads suggest that they ought to file. But they don't, given the stigma that financial failure still holds in society.
Many Americans are so indebted that a job loss, illness or divorce inevitably pushes them over the financial precipice These days, I'm inundated with pleas for help from readers who were coping with their bills until they were blindsided by bad luck, like the Utah real estate agent who was hit with both diabetes and a falling home-sale market that destroyed her business, or the California man who got behind on mortgage payments after a heart attack, or the Massachusetts woman who lost a high-paying job and took on a lower-paying one that forces her to choose between going without food and heat and paying her mortgage. These readers aren't trying to game the system; they're trying to find ways to hold on to their homes, and failing that, their dignity.
While emergency relief measures and loan modifications may help the hardest cases, there's clearly not enough money in the federal budget to help everyone. Temporary stimulus measures like mortgage rate cuts and easier access to credit are limited, too, since they only work when people feel rich enough to buy something. Ultimately, it will take more permanent solutions, like the proposal recently unveiled by President-elect Barack Obama to boost job growth, to restore confidence enough to get the economy moving again.
In the meantime, expect some relief in the form of more affordable home prices, which continue to fall even with massive government intervention: In the third quarter, they declined a record 16.6% from a year earlier, according to the latest home price index by Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller. As painful as this deflation is to those who are forced to sell, in the long run, lower home prices will help family budgets to come into balance, and personal debt levels to become more manageable. That will help the economy far more than trying to enti
On Tuesday, the government announced an $800 billion plan to stimulate the economy by buying $600 billion worth of mortgage-backed assets and $200 billion in consumer-debt securities. The intent is to make it easier for consumers to buy cars, pay for college tuition and get credit cards. Mortgage interest rates fell about a half-percentage point on the news. (See "Fed Aid Sets Off a Rush to Refinance")
Will the effort finally get the economy moving again? Frankly, I doubt it.
Lower mortgage rates can help people buy housing, but only if they feel secure enough in their jobs, and confident enough in their financial future to take the plunge. Given that consumers are drowning in debt -- especially housing debt -- fearful of layoffs, and waiting for housing prices to hit bottom, it's unlikely that they'll react to this initiative with a spending spree.
Consumers don't react to debt like companies, though the government is behaving like they do. Giving companies better access to credit allows them to meet payrolls while they adjust their production and expenses in response to tighter economic condition. But families who can't pay their bills can't lay off a spouse and kids. For them, debt grows from burdensome to monstrous as interest charges accumulate. Eventually, the load becomes overwhelming.
Testifying before the Senate on July 28, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren noted that the situation for the middle class has worsened during this decade. She explained that, adjusted for inflation, median household income fell $1,175 from 2000 to 2007, while expenses increased $4,655, pushed primarily by higher costs for mortgages, gas, health insurance and food, in that order. Families with children have borne an additional $3,180 in expenses for day care, after-school care and college tuition. To help cope with these rising costs, families turned to home equity lines of credit and refinancing -- effectively sucking the equity out of their homes -- as well as credit card debt. Nearly 44% of American households now carry a balance on their credit cards, she testified; to retire it, a family earning the median income of $48,201 would have to turn over every paycheck for nearly three months.
Foreclosure or bankruptcy will take a toll on a certain portion of these families, even though, as Ms. Warren points out in her book "The Two-Income Trap" (Basic Books: 2003), that's something most people desperately try to avoid. After studying 2,200 families that had filed for bankruptcy, she found that families that fail financially are most likely to be ones with children, who are struggling to buy and maintain homes in decent school districts, not flippers or status-seekers out to make a quick buck. For every family that officially declares bankruptcy, she writes, there are seven more whose debt loads suggest that they ought to file. But they don't, given the stigma that financial failure still holds in society.
Many Americans are so indebted that a job loss, illness or divorce inevitably pushes them over the financial precipice These days, I'm inundated with pleas for help from readers who were coping with their bills until they were blindsided by bad luck, like the Utah real estate agent who was hit with both diabetes and a falling home-sale market that destroyed her business, or the California man who got behind on mortgage payments after a heart attack, or the Massachusetts woman who lost a high-paying job and took on a lower-paying one that forces her to choose between going without food and heat and paying her mortgage. These readers aren't trying to game the system; they're trying to find ways to hold on to their homes, and failing that, their dignity.
While emergency relief measures and loan modifications may help the hardest cases, there's clearly not enough money in the federal budget to help everyone. Temporary stimulus measures like mortgage rate cuts and easier access to credit are limited, too, since they only work when people feel rich enough to buy something. Ultimately, it will take more permanent solutions, like the proposal recently unveiled by President-elect Barack Obama to boost job growth, to restore confidence enough to get the economy moving again.
In the meantime, expect some relief in the form of more affordable home prices, which continue to fall even with massive government intervention: In the third quarter, they declined a record 16.6% from a year earlier, according to the latest home price index by Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller. As painful as this deflation is to those who are forced to sell, in the long run, lower home prices will help family budgets to come into balance, and personal debt levels to become more manageable. That will help the economy far more than trying to enti
Monday, December 1, 2008
NAR Says Fed's Buying of Fannie, Freddie Debt Will Drive Down Interest Rates and Help to Stabilize Housing
Great news for home buyers, home sellers and the U.S. economy is how the National Association of Realtors® greeted this morning’s announcement by the Federal Reserve that it will purchase housing-related debts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, thus freeing up mortgage money on Main Street.
“This is one of the key actions we’ve been advocating ever since the Treasury altered its course on how it would use the $700 billion recovery package passed in September. This is great news for home buyers and sellers and we applaud the Fed for taking this historic step,” said NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth. “Housing recovery is the key to economic recovery in this country and it always has been.”
In a four-point plan submitted to Congress last month, NAR called for the Treasury Department to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from banks to provide price stabilization for housing. Today the Fed said it would purchase mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae for up to $500 billion. “This will be critical to a housing recovery,” McMillan said.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said purchasing debt obligations of Fannie and Freddie is an important move. “We commend the Fed decision because it will directly bring down long-term interest rates,” he said. “The level of investment should be aggressive enough to bring interest rates down in a meaningful manner. As we've seen in past recessions, home sales rise when mortgage interest rates fall.”
Yun said that given the present state of the mortgage market, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are too high. “If Fed action brings down mortgage interest rates by even 1 percentage point, it would increase homes sales by 500,000 units. That should help to draw inventory down and stabilize prices.”
Yun said higher home sales are critical now to absorb inventory and stabilize prices. “Only with stabilization in home prices can we have a healthy housing and economic recovery,” he said.
In its announcement, the Fed said it will purchase up to $100 billion of GSE debt from primary dealers through a series of competitive auctions to begin next week. Purchases of up to $500 billion in MBS will be conducted by selected asset managers before year-end. Both the direct obligations and MBS purchases are expected to take place over several quarters.
“This is one of the key actions we’ve been advocating ever since the Treasury altered its course on how it would use the $700 billion recovery package passed in September. This is great news for home buyers and sellers and we applaud the Fed for taking this historic step,” said NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth. “Housing recovery is the key to economic recovery in this country and it always has been.”
In a four-point plan submitted to Congress last month, NAR called for the Treasury Department to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from banks to provide price stabilization for housing. Today the Fed said it would purchase mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae for up to $500 billion. “This will be critical to a housing recovery,” McMillan said.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said purchasing debt obligations of Fannie and Freddie is an important move. “We commend the Fed decision because it will directly bring down long-term interest rates,” he said. “The level of investment should be aggressive enough to bring interest rates down in a meaningful manner. As we've seen in past recessions, home sales rise when mortgage interest rates fall.”
Yun said that given the present state of the mortgage market, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are too high. “If Fed action brings down mortgage interest rates by even 1 percentage point, it would increase homes sales by 500,000 units. That should help to draw inventory down and stabilize prices.”
Yun said higher home sales are critical now to absorb inventory and stabilize prices. “Only with stabilization in home prices can we have a healthy housing and economic recovery,” he said.
In its announcement, the Fed said it will purchase up to $100 billion of GSE debt from primary dealers through a series of competitive auctions to begin next week. Purchases of up to $500 billion in MBS will be conducted by selected asset managers before year-end. Both the direct obligations and MBS purchases are expected to take place over several quarters.
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